Climate Change Odds Much Worse Than Thought
Sunday, May 31st, 2009There is a report in ScienceDaily on the most comprehensive modeling which shows that unless we have rapid and massive action, climate change will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago – and could be even worse.
It really is time for us all to wake up and start reducing our consumption. As individuals and as business owners and managers we need to all be reducing our waste energy by 20% immediately with simple behavioural change plus supporting governments and others to also bring in structural and energy generation changes to bring this up to 50% overall. And no- I am not crazy- this is possible. It is relatively easy for us to make the 20% reductions.
I do think that the legislation needs to be thought though more than it has been so far instead of being forced though without scrutiny. But we should not sit around waiting for someone else to do it for us.
New projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This is seriously scary!
All the planning and policies (and lack of action) have been based on 2% changes predicted in 2003 studies. The big difference has a number of causes including improved economic modelling and more recent economic data showing less chance of people actually reducing their emissions than earlier projections plus a number of others including soot in their air and what is happening in the deep oceans.
And this new modeling does not take account of the potential for large scale melting of permafrost in arctic regions which would release of large quantities of methane.
Because our transport systems, buildings and power plants last for decades, changes need to start happening urgently to low or zero greenhouse gas-emitting technologies.”
Technorati Tags: arctic, behavioural change, climate change, deep oceans, emissions, greenhouse gas, methane, modeling, permafrost
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