The effects of Global Warming
Tuesday, June 12th, 2007Global warming is a fact. It is likely to speed up, with near record growth in greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.
The recent UK Stern Report warned that if we ignore this we are likely to have an economic impact equivalent to the combined first and second world wars plus the great depression, and that is without considering millions of people displaced around the world.
To put climate change into perspective, during the last ice age global temperatures were only 5°C lower than today and much of Canada, Europe and northern Russia was covered in massive ice sheets several kilometres thick.
Weather extremes and greater fluctuations in rainfall and temperatures caused by climate change are liable to change productive landscapes and exacerbate food, water and energy scarcities in a relatively short time span. Particularly worrying is sea-level rise because of the density of coastal populations and the potential for the large-scale displacement of people in Asia.
Climate change will cause health security consequences, since some infectious diseases will become more widespread as the planet heats up.
Rising global temperatures will see more fires, droughts and flooding over the next 200 years, according to climate scientists from the UK’s University of Bristol.
It is predicted that climate change will contribute to destabilising, unregulated population movements in Asia and the Pacific. While most of population movement is likely to be internal, there will be flow on effects requiring cooperative regional solutions.
Increasingly extreme weather patterns will result in greater death and destruction from natural disasters, and add to the burden on poorer countries and even stretch the coping ability of more developed nations.
For a handful of small, low-lying Pacific nations, climate change is the ultimate security threat, since rising sea-levels will eventually make their countries uninhabitable.
Even if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases now, researchers predict Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America and Amazonia are at risk of forest loss. Global warming of less than 2°C would create a 30% probability of deforestation, while more than 3°C would double the likelihood of loss. (UK research)
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